Intuitive Machines, Inc. logo LUNR - Intuitive Machines, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 1
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $37.83 DETAILS
HIGH: $50.00
LOW: $27.00
MEDIAN: $37.50
CONSENSUS: $37.83
DOWNSIDE: 1.12%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 72% confidence

Primary model: Current EPS × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 75.6% above fair value
Current Price $38.26
Bear Case $14.52 62.0% downside ($14.52 - $38.26) / $38.26 = -62.0% EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair Value $21.79 43.0% downside ($21.79 - $38.26) / $38.26 = -43.0% Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull Case $29.05 24.1% downside ($29.05 - $38.26) / $38.26 = -24.1% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x

Adjust Assumptions

7.5x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 16.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $37.83 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $21.79 per share.

Warnings

Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Wall Street's average price target is $37.83 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
  • M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
  • Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case