Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. logo LTH - Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $45.88 DETAILS
HIGH: $60.00
LOW: $37.00
MEDIAN: $43.50
CONSENSUS: $45.88
UPSIDE: 9.52%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 4.3% above fair value
Current Price $41.89
Bear Case $32.13 23.3% downside ($32.13 - $41.89) / $41.89 = -23.3% $1.72 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $40.16 4.1% downside ($40.16 - $41.89) / $41.89 = -4.1% $1.72 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $48.20 15.1% upside ($48.20 - $41.89) / $41.89 = 15.1% $1.72 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.5x
1.72$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 24.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $45.88 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $40.16 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples