Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. logo LTH - Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $54.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $64.00
LOW: $46.00
MEDIAN: $53.50
CONSENSUS: $54.67
UPSIDE: 22.61%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 19.4% above fair value
Current Price $44.59
Bear Case $29.88 33.0% downside ($29.88 - $44.59) / $44.59 = -33.0% $1.66 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $37.35 16.2% downside ($37.35 - $44.59) / $44.59 = -16.2% $1.66 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $44.82 0.5% upside ($44.82 - $44.59) / $44.59 = 0.5% $1.66 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.5x
1.66$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 26.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.66, the base-case value is $37.35 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (15 analysts) $54.67
Analyst Range $46.00 – $64.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 32%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $54.67 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples