Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. logo LTH - Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $41.40 DETAILS
HIGH: $44.00
LOW: $37.00
MEDIAN: $42.00
CONSENSUS: $41.40
UPSIDE: 29.09%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 18.3% below fair value
Current Price $32.07
Bear Case $31.42 2.0% downside ($31.42 - $32.07) / $32.07 = -2.0% $1.72 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $39.26 22.4% upside ($39.26 - $32.07) / $32.07 = 22.4% $1.72 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $47.12 46.9% upside ($47.12 - $32.07) / $32.07 = 46.9% $1.72 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.5x
1.72$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $41.40 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $39.26 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples