Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. logo LTH - Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $55.17 DETAILS
HIGH: $64.00
LOW: $46.00
MEDIAN: $53.50
CONSENSUS: $55.17
UPSIDE: 35.82%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 8.8% above fair value
Current Price $40.62
Bear Case $29.88 26.4% downside ($29.88 - $40.62) / $40.62 = -26.4% $1.66 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $37.35 8.1% downside ($37.35 - $40.62) / $40.62 = -8.1% $1.66 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $44.82 10.3% upside ($44.82 - $40.62) / $40.62 = 10.3% $1.66 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.5x
1.66$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 24.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.66, the base-case value is $37.35 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (15 analysts) $55.17
Analyst Range $46.00 – $64.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 32%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $55.17 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples