Stride, Inc. logo LRN - Stride, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 10
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $107.80 DETAILS
HIGH: $185.00
LOW: $45.00
MEDIAN: $94.00
CONSENSUS: $107.80
UPSIDE: 24.14%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 38.3% below fair value
Current Price $86.84
Bear Case $115.85 33.4% upside ($115.85 - $86.84) / $86.84 = 33.4% $7.14 × 16x P/E
Fair Value $140.67 62.0% upside ($140.67 - $86.84) / $86.84 = 62.0% $7.14 × 20x P/E
Bull Case $165.49 90.6% upside ($165.49 - $86.84) / $86.84 = 90.6% $7.14 × 23x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

19.7x
7.14$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (20x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 20x P/E to adjusted EPS of $7.14, the base-case value is $140.67 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (17 analysts) $107.80
Analyst Range $45.00 – $185.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 30%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $107.80 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 30% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples