Cheniere Energy, Inc. logo LNG - Cheniere Energy, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 24
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $299.88 DETAILS
HIGH: $330.00
LOW: $279.00
MEDIAN: $295.00
CONSENSUS: $299.88
UPSIDE: 6.59%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 44.3% below fair value
Current Price $281.33
Bear Case $403.92 43.6% upside ($403.92 - $281.33) / $281.33 = 43.6% $24.13 × 17x P/E
Fair Value $504.90 79.5% upside ($504.90 - $281.33) / $281.33 = 79.5% $24.13 × 21x P/E
Bull Case $605.87 115.4% upside ($605.87 - $281.33) / $281.33 = 115.4% $24.13 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

20.9x
24.13$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 11.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 21x P/E to adjusted EPS of $24.13, the base-case value is $504.90 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (27 analysts) $299.88
Analyst Range $279.00 – $330.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 68%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $299.88 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 68% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples