AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Li Auto Inc. as a Cyclical & Capital-Intensive business and values it using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag LI as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Li Auto Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for LI comes from a Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Cyclical & Capital-Intensive classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value LI?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. LI was classified as Cyclical & Capital-Intensive and is valued using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, built from LI's most recent reported fundamentals.

LI - Li Auto Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $15.18 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 662.5% above fair value

Current Price $11.50

Bear Case $1.11 90.3% downside ($1.11 - $11.50) / $11.50 = -90.3% $0.16 × 7x

Fair Value $1.51 86.9% downside ($1.51 - $11.50) / $11.50 = -86.9% $0.16 × 10x

Bull Case $1.91 83.4% downside ($1.91 - $11.50) / $11.50 = -83.4% $0.16 × 12x

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

9.5x

Normalized EPS

0.16$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.16)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 72.4x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $0.16 at a 10x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $1.51 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 1.1x.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (16 analysts) $15.18

Analyst Range $13.00 – $18.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 90%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $15.18 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 90% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

ℹ Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1501 USD per CNY.

⚠ This stock is 49% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing