Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. logo LECO - Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 14
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $304.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $340.00
LOW: $250.00
MEDIAN: $310.00
CONSENSUS: $304.00
UPSIDE: 20.36%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 0.9% above fair value
Current Price $252.58
Bear Case $165.08 34.6% downside ($165.08 - $252.58) / $252.58 = -34.6% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $250.22 0.9% downside ($250.22 - $252.58) / $252.58 = -0.9% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $339.81 34.5% upside ($339.81 - $252.58) / $252.58 = 34.5% 17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

12.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (13% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 41%
Implied Market Multiple 28.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 13.8% vs our 12.7% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $304.00 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $250.22 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions