Liberty Global: Q1 Thesis Update Plus Extracting The Spin-Off Alpha
Liberty Global remains a Strong Buy, driven by a well-defined spin-off catalyst and management's SOTP valuation aligning with my $27 base case. Operational momentum in Ziggo Group and Telenet, plus regulatory tailwinds from new EU merger guidelines, de-risks the spin-off and supports upside. Risks include a European recession, high subsidiary leverage (4-5x EBITDA), and paused buybacks due to cash restrictions, but partial sector hedges can mitigate exposure.
LBTYK - Liberty Global plc