Liberty Global plc logo LBTYK - Liberty Global plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 20
HOLD 8
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $12.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $14.00
LOW: $11.50
MEDIAN: $12.50
CONSENSUS: $12.67
UPSIDE: 21.48%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 68.2% below fair value
Current Price $10.43
Bear Case $26.24 151.6% upside ($26.24 - $10.43) / $10.43 = 151.6% $1.85 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $32.80 214.5% upside ($32.80 - $10.43) / $10.43 = 214.5% $1.85 × 18x P/E
Bull Case $39.36 277.4% upside ($39.36 - $10.43) / $10.43 = 277.4% $1.85 × 21x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.7x
1.85$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 5.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.85, the base-case value is $32.80 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (29 analysts) $12.67
Analyst Range $11.50 – $14.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 159%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $12.67 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 159% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples