LAZ - Lazard Inc
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$40.60
DETAILS
HIGH:
$52.00
LOW:
$32.00
MEDIAN:
$40.00
CONSENSUS:
$40.60
UPSIDE:
12.50%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
49.5%
12.3%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (49.5%) vs. cost of equity (12.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
8.43x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 49.5% vs. 12.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.52x on $4.28 tangible book, implying $57.36 per share. DDM cross-check: $17.71.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$40.60
Analyst Range
$32.00 – $52.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
41%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $17.71 (69% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $40.60 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 41% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly