Kilroy Realty Corporation logo KRC - Kilroy Realty Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 16
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $36.17 DETAILS
HIGH: $40.00
LOW: $29.00
MEDIAN: $38.00
CONSENSUS: $36.17
UPSIDE: 6.48%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 35.3% below fair value
Current Price $33.97
Bear Case $41.08 20.9% upside ($41.08 - $33.97) / $33.97 = 20.9% $5.34 FFO × 10x
Fair Value $52.51 54.6% upside ($52.51 - $33.97) / $33.97 = 54.6% $5.34 FFO × 13x
Bull Case $63.95 88.2% upside ($63.95 - $33.97) / $33.97 = 88.2% $5.34 FFO × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

13.0x
5.34$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($5.34) × office P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 6.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $36.17 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $52.51 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 6.4% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $31.17 (46% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $36.17 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 60% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify