Kilroy Realty Corporation logo KRC - Kilroy Realty Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 14
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $37.13 DETAILS
HIGH: $44.00
LOW: $31.00
MEDIAN: $38.00
CONSENSUS: $37.13
UPSIDE: 1.81%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 37.1% below fair value
Current Price $36.47
Bear Case $45.33 24.3% upside ($45.33 - $36.47) / $36.47 = 24.3% $5.34 FFO × 10x
Fair Value $57.94 58.9% upside ($57.94 - $36.47) / $36.47 = 58.9% $5.34 FFO × 13x
Bull Case $70.56 93.5% upside ($70.56 - $36.47) / $36.47 = 93.5% $5.34 FFO × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

13.0x
5.34$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($5.34) × office P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 6.8x

Plain-Language Summary

At $5.34 FFO/share with a 13x office REIT multiple, the base-case value is $57.94 per share. Dividend yield: 5.9%. DDM cross-check: $31.17.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (28 analysts) $37.13
Analyst Range $31.00 – $44.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 56%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.9% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $31.17 (46% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $37.13 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 56% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify