Kilroy Realty Corporation logo KRC - Kilroy Realty Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 14
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $37.63 DETAILS
HIGH: $44.00
LOW: $31.00
MEDIAN: $38.00
CONSENSUS: $37.63
UPSIDE: 8.04%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 40.8% below fair value
Current Price $34.83
Bear Case $45.99 32.0% upside ($45.99 - $34.83) / $34.83 = 32.0% $5.43 FFO × 10x
Fair Value $58.80 68.8% upside ($58.80 - $34.83) / $34.83 = 68.8% $5.43 FFO × 13x
Bull Case $71.62 105.6% upside ($71.62 - $34.83) / $34.83 = 105.6% $5.43 FFO × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

13.0x
5.43$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($5.43) × office P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 6.4x

Plain-Language Summary

At $5.43 FFO/share with a 13x office REIT multiple, the base-case value is $58.80 per share. Dividend yield: 6.2%. DDM cross-check: $31.17.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (28 analysts) $37.63
Analyst Range $31.00 – $44.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 56%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
⚠ Dividend yield of 6.2% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $31.17 (47% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $37.63 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 56% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify