KRC - Kilroy Realty Corporation
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$37.63
DETAILS
HIGH:
$44.00
LOW:
$31.00
MEDIAN:
$38.00
CONSENSUS:
$37.63
UPSIDE:
8.04%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
13.0x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($5.43) × office P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
6.4x
Plain-Language Summary
At $5.43 FFO/share with a 13x office REIT multiple, the base-case value is $58.80 per share. Dividend yield: 6.2%. DDM cross-check: $31.17.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (28 analysts)
$37.63
Analyst Range
$31.00 – $44.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
56%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 6.2% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $31.17 (47% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $37.63 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 56% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify