The Kroger Co. logo KR - The Kroger Co.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 21
HOLD 17
SELL 6
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $71.58 DETAILS
HIGH: $82.00
LOW: $58.00
MEDIAN: $72.00
CONSENSUS: $71.58
UPSIDE: 26.56%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 22.1% above fair value
Current Price $56.56
Bear Case $38.61 31.7% downside ($38.61 - $56.56) / $56.56 = -31.7% $2.96 × 10x P/E
Fair Value $46.34 18.1% downside ($46.34 - $56.56) / $56.56 = -18.1% $2.96 × 12x P/E
Bull Case $54.06 4.4% downside ($54.06 - $56.56) / $56.56 = -4.4% $2.96 × 14x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

12.0x
2.96$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (12x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $71.58 from 44 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $46.34 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 92%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 94% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $71.58 (from 44 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples