KR - The Kroger Co.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$71.58
DETAILS
HIGH:
$82.00
LOW:
$58.00
MEDIAN:
$72.00
CONSENSUS:
$71.58
UPSIDE:
26.56%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
80% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
12.0x
2.96$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (12x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.1x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $71.58 from 44 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $46.34 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 92%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 94% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $71.58 (from 44 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples