Koppers Holdings Inc. logo KOP - Koppers Holdings Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $55.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $55.00
LOW: $55.00
MEDIAN: $55.00
CONSENSUS: $55.00
UPSIDE: 15.11%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 16.3% above fair value
Current Price $47.78
Bear Case $32.88 31.2% downside ($32.88 - $47.78) / $47.78 = -31.2% $2.74 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $41.10 14.0% downside ($41.10 - $47.78) / $47.78 = -14.0% $2.74 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $49.32 3.2% upside ($49.32 - $47.78) / $47.78 = 3.2% $2.74 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.74$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.74, the base-case value is $41.10 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (14 analysts) $55.00
Analyst Range $55.00 – $55.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 25%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $55.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 25% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples