Kinder Morgan, Inc. logo KMI - Kinder Morgan, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 16
HOLD 17
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $36.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $43.00
LOW: $32.00
MEDIAN: $35.00
CONSENSUS: $36.67
UPSIDE: 14.17%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 23.0% above fair value
Current Price $32.12
Bear Case $20.89 35.0% downside ($20.89 - $32.12) / $32.12 = -35.0% $1.43 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $26.11 18.7% downside ($26.11 - $32.12) / $32.12 = -18.7% $1.43 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $31.34 2.4% downside ($31.34 - $32.12) / $32.12 = -2.4% $1.43 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.1x
1.43$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $36.67 from 34 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $26.11 per share.

Warnings

The company pays out 86% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $36.67 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples