Kinder Morgan, Inc. logo KMI - Kinder Morgan, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 16
HOLD 17
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $37.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $43.00
LOW: $32.00
MEDIAN: $37.00
CONSENSUS: $37.25
UPSIDE: 16.33%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 55.0% above fair value
Current Price $32.02
Bear Case $16.53 48.4% downside ($16.53 - $32.02) / $32.02 = -48.4% $1.37 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $20.66 35.5% downside ($20.66 - $32.02) / $32.02 = -35.5% $1.37 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $24.79 22.6% downside ($24.79 - $32.02) / $32.02 = -22.6% $1.37 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.1x
1.37$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 23.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.37, the base-case value is $20.66 per share. DDM cross-check: $18.42.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (34 analysts) $37.25
Analyst Range $32.00 – $43.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 45%

Warnings

The company pays out 86% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $37.25 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples