Kinder Morgan, Inc. logo KMI - Kinder Morgan, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 16
HOLD 17
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $35.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $38.00
LOW: $32.00
MEDIAN: $35.00
CONSENSUS: $35.00
UPSIDE: 3.58%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 31.9% above fair value
Current Price $33.79
Bear Case $20.49 39.4% downside ($20.49 - $33.79) / $33.79 = -39.4% $1.43 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $25.61 24.2% downside ($25.61 - $33.79) / $33.79 = -24.2% $1.43 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $30.74 9.0% downside ($30.74 - $33.79) / $33.79 = -9.0% $1.43 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.1x
1.43$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 23.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $35.00 from 34 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $25.61 per share.

Warnings

The company pays out 86% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $35.00 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples