Kimberly-Clark Corporation logo KMB - Kimberly-Clark Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 18
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $113.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $121.00
LOW: $100.00
MEDIAN: $115.50
CONSENSUS: $113.00
UPSIDE: 4.33%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 4.1% above fair value
Current Price $108.31
Bear Case $85.66 20.9% downside ($85.66 - $108.31) / $108.31 = -20.9% $6.07 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $104.02 4.0% downside ($104.02 - $108.31) / $108.31 = -4.0% $6.07 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $122.38 13.0% upside ($122.38 - $108.31) / $108.31 = 13.0% $6.07 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.1x
6.07$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.07, the base-case value is $104.02 per share. DDM cross-check: $86.65.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (31 analysts) $113.00
Analyst Range $100.00 – $121.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 8%

Warnings

The company pays out 84% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples