Kimberly-Clark Corporation logo KMB - Kimberly-Clark Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 19
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $103.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $110.00
LOW: $99.00
MEDIAN: $103.00
CONSENSUS: $103.75
UPSIDE: 4.65%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 4.8% below fair value
Current Price $99.14
Bear Case $85.77 13.5% downside ($85.77 - $99.14) / $99.14 = -13.5% $6.09 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $104.15 5.1% upside ($104.15 - $99.14) / $99.14 = 5.1% $6.09 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $122.53 23.6% upside ($122.53 - $99.14) / $99.14 = 23.6% $6.09 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.1x
6.09$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $103.75 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $104.15 per share.

Warnings

The company pays out 84% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples