Kimberly-Clark Corporation logo KMB - Kimberly-Clark Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 18
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $106.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $121.00
LOW: $99.00
MEDIAN: $103.00
CONSENSUS: $106.50
DOWNSIDE: 0.03%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 1.5% above fair value
Current Price $106.53
Bear Case $86.45 18.9% downside ($86.45 - $106.53) / $106.53 = -18.9% $6.09 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $104.97 1.5% downside ($104.97 - $106.53) / $106.53 = -1.5% $6.09 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $123.50 15.9% upside ($123.50 - $106.53) / $106.53 = 15.9% $6.09 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.1x
6.09$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $106.50 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $104.97 per share.

Warnings

The company pays out 84% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples