KeyCorp logo KEY - KeyCorp

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 31
HOLD 18
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $25.44 DETAILS
HIGH: $28.00
LOW: $23.00
MEDIAN: $25.00
CONSENSUS: $25.44
UPSIDE: 12.32%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 7.9% below fair value
Current Price $22.65
Bear Case $17.23 23.9% downside ($17.23 - $22.65) / $22.65 = -23.9% ROTCE 7.8% → 0.64x TBV
Fair Value $24.60 8.6% upside ($24.60 - $22.65) / $22.65 = 8.6% ROTCE 10.4% → 1.08x TBV
Bull Case $31.99 41.2% upside ($31.99 - $22.65) / $22.65 = 41.2% ROTCE 11.9% → 1.34x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

10.4%
9.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (10.4%) vs. cost of equity (9.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.39x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $25.44 from 51 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $24.60 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $9.28 (62% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly