AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes KeyCorp's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag KEY as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is KeyCorp's fair value?

Fair value for KEY is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value KEY?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from KEY's most recent reported fundamentals.

KEY - KeyCorp

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $23.33 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild

Trading 9.7% below fair value

Current Price $21.56

Bear Case $16.71 22.5% downside ($16.71 - $21.56) / $21.56 = -22.5% ROTCE 7.8% → 0.62x TBV

Fair Value $23.86 10.7% upside ($23.86 - $21.56) / $21.56 = 10.7% ROTCE 10.4% → 1.05x TBV

Bull Case $31.03 43.9% upside ($31.03 - $21.56) / $21.56 = 43.9% ROTCE 11.9% → 1.30x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

Return on Tangible Equity

10.4%

Cost of Equity

10.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (10.4%) vs. cost of equity (10.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.33x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $23.33 from 51 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $23.86 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.

⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $10.24 (58% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly