AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes The St. Joe Company's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag JOE as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is The St. Joe Company's fair value?

Fair value for JOE is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value JOE?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from JOE's most recent reported fundamentals.

JOE - The St. Joe Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 60% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 41.8% above fair value

Current Price $63.81

Bear Case $36.00 43.6% downside ($36.00 - $63.81) / $63.81 = -43.6% $2.00 × 18x P/E

Fair Value $45.00 29.5% downside ($45.00 - $63.81) / $63.81 = -29.5% $2.00 × 22x P/E

Bull Case $54.00 15.4% downside ($54.00 - $63.81) / $63.81 = -15.4% $2.00 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

22.5x

Adjusted EPS

2.0$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 31.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.00, the base-case value is $45.00 per share.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples