AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes John Marshall Bancorp, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag JMSB as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is John Marshall Bancorp, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for JMSB is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value JMSB?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from JMSB's most recent reported fundamentals.

JMSB - John Marshall Bancorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $24.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate

Trading 25.2% below fair value

Current Price $21.06

Bear Case $14.06 33.2% downside ($14.06 - $21.06) / $21.06 = -33.2% ROTCE 6.0% → 0.75x TBV

Fair Value $28.15 33.6% upside ($28.15 - $21.06) / $21.06 = 33.6% ROTCE 8.0% → 1.50x TBV

Bull Case $36.60 73.8% upside ($36.60 - $21.06) / $21.06 = 73.8% ROTCE 9.2% → 1.94x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

Return on Tangible Equity

8.0%

Cost of Equity

6.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.0%) vs. cost of equity (6.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.12x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 8.0% vs. 6.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.50x on $18.82 tangible book, implying $28.15 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.

⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly