John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. logo JMSB - John Marshall Bancorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $24.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $24.00
LOW: $24.00
MEDIAN: $24.00
CONSENSUS: $24.00
UPSIDE: 1.78%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 17.4% below fair value
Current Price $23.58
Bear Case $14.27 39.5% downside ($14.27 - $23.58) / $23.58 = -39.5% ROTCE 6.0% → 0.76x TBV
Fair Value $28.56 21.1% upside ($28.56 - $23.58) / $23.58 = 21.1% ROTCE 8.0% → 1.52x TBV
Bull Case $37.13 57.5% upside ($37.13 - $23.58) / $23.58 = 57.5% ROTCE 9.2% → 1.97x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

8.0%
6.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.0%) vs. cost of equity (6.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.25x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 8.0% vs. 6.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.52x on $18.82 tangible book, implying $28.56 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly