JBT Marel Corporation logo JBTM - JBT Marel Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $163.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $175.00
LOW: $150.00
MEDIAN: $165.00
CONSENSUS: $163.33
UPSIDE: 39.75%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 11.6% above fair value
Current Price $116.87
Bear Case $66.13 43.4% downside ($66.13 - $116.87) / $116.87 = -43.4% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $104.69 10.4% downside ($104.69 - $116.87) / $116.87 = -10.4% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $143.61 22.9% upside ($143.61 - $116.87) / $116.87 = 22.9% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.1%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 25.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) 12.2% vs our 11.1% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $104.69 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions