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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 28.0% below fair value
Current Price $241.26
Bear Case $218.58 9.4% downside ($218.58 - $241.26) / $241.26 = -9.4% ROTCE 10.7% → 1.67x TBV
Fair Value $335.16 38.9% upside ($335.16 - $241.26) / $241.26 = 38.9% ROTCE 14.2% → 2.56x TBV
Bull Case $405.10 67.9% upside ($405.10 - $241.26) / $241.26 = 67.9% ROTCE 16.4% → 3.09x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

14.2%
8.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.2%) vs. cost of equity (8.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.84x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 14.2% vs. 8.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.56x on $131.02 tangible book, implying $335.16 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly