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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 20.4% below fair value
Current Price $293.08
Bear Case $240.06 18.1% downside ($240.06 - $293.08) / $293.08 = -18.1% ROTCE 10.7% → 1.83x TBV
Fair Value $368.09 25.6% upside ($368.09 - $293.08) / $293.08 = 25.6% ROTCE 14.2% → 2.81x TBV
Bull Case $444.90 51.8% upside ($444.90 - $293.08) / $293.08 = 51.8% ROTCE 16.4% → 3.40x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

14.2%
7.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.2%) vs. cost of equity (7.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.24x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 14.2% vs. 7.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.81x on $131.02 tangible book, implying $368.09 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly