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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 23.2% below fair value
Current Price $272.37
Bear Case $231.31 15.1% downside ($231.31 - $272.37) / $272.37 = -15.1% ROTCE 10.7% → 1.77x TBV
Fair Value $354.68 30.2% upside ($354.68 - $272.37) / $272.37 = 30.2% ROTCE 14.2% → 2.71x TBV
Bull Case $428.70 57.4% upside ($428.70 - $272.37) / $272.37 = 57.4% ROTCE 16.4% → 3.27x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

14.2%
7.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.2%) vs. cost of equity (7.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.08x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 14.2% vs. 7.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.71x on $131.02 tangible book, implying $354.68 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly