Independence Realty Trust, Inc. logo IRT - Independence Realty Trust, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 19
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $19.58 DETAILS
HIGH: $22.00
LOW: $18.00
MEDIAN: $19.00
CONSENSUS: $19.58
UPSIDE: 16.13%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 40.8% below fair value
Current Price $16.86
Bear Case $23.96 42.1% upside ($23.96 - $16.86) / $16.86 = 42.1% $1.27 FFO × 21x
Fair Value $28.46 68.8% upside ($28.46 - $16.86) / $16.86 = 68.8% $1.27 FFO × 25x
Bull Case $32.95 95.4% upside ($32.95 - $16.86) / $16.86 = 95.4% $1.27 FFO × 29x

Adjust Assumptions

24.7x
1.27$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.27) × residential P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 13.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $19.58 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $28.46 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $19.58 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 60% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify