Independence Realty Trust, Inc. logo IRT - Independence Realty Trust, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 20
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $19.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $20.00
LOW: $19.00
MEDIAN: $19.00
CONSENSUS: $19.33
UPSIDE: 19.47%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 48.5% below fair value
Current Price $16.18
Bear Case $26.45 63.5% upside ($26.45 - $16.18) / $16.18 = 63.5% $1.27 FFO × 21x
Fair Value $31.42 94.2% upside ($31.42 - $16.18) / $16.18 = 94.2% $1.27 FFO × 25x
Bull Case $36.38 124.8% upside ($36.38 - $16.18) / $16.18 = 124.8% $1.27 FFO × 29x

Adjust Assumptions

24.7x
1.27$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.27) × residential P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 12.7x

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.27 FFO/share with a 25x residential REIT multiple, the base-case value is $31.42 per share. Dividend yield: 4.3%.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (27 analysts) $19.33
Analyst Range $19.00 – $20.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 63%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $19.33 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 63% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify