First Internet Bancorp logo INBK - First Internet Bancorp

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $29.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $33.00
LOW: $26.00
MEDIAN: $29.50
CONSENSUS: $29.50
UPSIDE: 10.94%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 16.1% below fair value
Current Price $26.59
Bear Case $22.18 16.6% downside ($22.18 - $26.59) / $26.59 = -16.6% ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair Value $31.68 19.1% upside ($31.68 - $26.59) / $26.59 = 19.1% ROTCE -9.9% → 0.30x TBV
Bull Case $41.18 54.9% upside ($41.18 - $26.59) / $26.59 = 54.9% ROTCE -11.4% → 0.30x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

-9.9%
9.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (-9.9%) vs. cost of equity (9.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.65x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of -9.9% vs. 9.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $40.66 tangible book, implying $31.68 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $29.50
Analyst Range $26.00 – $33.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 7%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
⚠ Return on equity (-9.9%) is below the minimum investors require (9.1%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly