First Internet Bancorp logo INBK - First Internet Bancorp

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $29.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $33.00
LOW: $26.00
MEDIAN: $29.50
CONSENSUS: $29.50
UPSIDE: 5.36%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 11.6% below fair value
Current Price $28.00
Bear Case $22.18 20.8% downside ($22.18 - $28.00) / $28.00 = -20.8% ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair Value $31.68 13.1% upside ($31.68 - $28.00) / $28.00 = 13.1% ROTCE -9.9% → 0.30x TBV
Bull Case $41.18 47.1% upside ($41.18 - $28.00) / $28.00 = 47.1% ROTCE -11.4% → 0.30x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

-9.9%
8.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (-9.9%) vs. cost of equity (8.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.69x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of -9.9% vs. 8.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $40.74 tangible book, implying $31.68 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $29.50
Analyst Range $26.00 – $33.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 7%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (-9.9%) is below the minimum investors require (8.9%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly