Industrial Logistics Properties Trust logo ILPT - Industrial Logistics Properties Trust

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 3
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $11.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $11.50
LOW: $11.50
MEDIAN: $11.50
CONSENSUS: $11.50
UPSIDE: 37.15%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 70.9% below fair value
Current Price $8.38
Bear Case $23.63 181.8% upside ($23.63 - $8.38) / $8.38 = 181.8% $1.48 FFO × 22x
Fair Value $28.83 243.8% upside ($28.83 - $8.38) / $8.38 = 243.8% $1.48 FFO × 26x
Bull Case $34.03 305.8% upside ($34.03 - $8.38) / $8.38 = 305.8% $1.48 FFO × 31x

Adjust Assumptions

26.4x
1.48$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.48) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 5.7x

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.48 FFO/share with a 26x industrial REIT multiple, the base-case value is $28.83 per share. Dividend yield: 3.0%. DDM cross-check: $4.66.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (9 analysts) $11.50
Analyst Range $11.50 – $11.50
Divergence from AlphaVal 151%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $4.66 (84% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $11.50 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 151% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify