ILPT - Industrial Logistics Properties Trust
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$11.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$11.50
LOW:
$11.50
MEDIAN:
$11.50
CONSENSUS:
$11.50
UPSIDE:
37.15%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
26.4x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.48) × industrial P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
5.7x
Plain-Language Summary
At $1.48 FFO/share with a 26x industrial REIT multiple, the base-case value is $28.83 per share. Dividend yield: 3.0%. DDM cross-check: $4.66.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$11.50
Analyst Range
$11.50 – $11.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
151%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $4.66 (84% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $11.50 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 151% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify