Industrial Logistics Properties Trust logo ILPT - Industrial Logistics Properties Trust

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 3
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $7.40 DETAILS
HIGH: $7.40
LOW: $7.40
MEDIAN: $7.40
CONSENSUS: $7.40
DOWNSIDE: 17.32%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 63.2% below fair value
Current Price $8.95
Bear Case $19.95 122.9% upside ($19.95 - $8.95) / $8.95 = 122.9% $1.49 FFO × 22x
Fair Value $24.34 172.0% upside ($24.34 - $8.95) / $8.95 = 172.0% $1.49 FFO × 26x
Bull Case $28.75 221.2% upside ($28.75 - $8.95) / $8.95 = 221.2% $1.49 FFO × 31x

Adjust Assumptions

26.4x
1.49$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.49) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 6.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $7.40 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $24.34 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $3.73 (87% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $7.40 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 286% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify