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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 9
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $690.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $740.00
LOW: $620.00
MEDIAN: $710.00
CONSENSUS: $690.00
UPSIDE: 21.01%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 65% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 123.4% above fair value
Current Price $570.21
Bear Case $186.40 67.3% downside ($186.40 - $570.21) / $570.21 = -67.3% 6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $255.29 55.2% downside ($255.29 - $570.21) / $570.21 = -55.2% 10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $323.29 43.3% downside ($323.29 - $570.21) / $570.21 = -43.3% 14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.4%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 42.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) 21.0% vs our 10.4% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $255.29 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (23 analysts) $690.00
Analyst Range $620.00 – $740.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 63%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $690.00 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions