Independent Bank Corporation logo IBCP - Independent Bank Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $38.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $39.00
LOW: $37.00
MEDIAN: $38.00
CONSENSUS: $38.00
UPSIDE: 5.91%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 35.0% below fair value
Current Price $35.88
Bear Case $36.62 2.1% upside ($36.62 - $35.88) / $35.88 = 2.1% ROTCE 11.6% → 1.84x TBV
Fair Value $55.24 54.0% upside ($55.24 - $35.88) / $35.88 = 54.0% ROTCE 15.5% → 2.78x TBV
Bull Case $66.41 85.1% upside ($66.41 - $35.88) / $35.88 = 85.1% ROTCE 17.8% → 3.34x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

15.5%
8.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (15.5%) vs. cost of equity (8.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.67x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $38.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $55.24 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $32.45 (46% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $38.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 57% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly