IBCP - Independent Bank Corporation
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$39.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$42.00
LOW:
$37.00
MEDIAN:
$39.50
CONSENSUS:
$39.50
UPSIDE:
10.46%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
15.5%
8.3%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (15.5%) vs. cost of equity (8.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.67x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 15.5% vs. 8.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.68x on $21.46 tangible book, implying $57.56 per share. DDM cross-check: $33.09.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$39.50
Analyst Range
$37.00 – $42.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
46%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $33.09 (43% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $39.50 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 46% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly