Henry Schein, Inc. logo HSIC - Henry Schein, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 15
HOLD 15
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $87.13 DETAILS
HIGH: $100.00
LOW: $64.00
MEDIAN: $86.00
CONSENSUS: $87.13
DOWNSIDE: 0.79%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 29.7% above fair value
Current Price $87.82
Bear Case $54.14 38.3% downside ($54.14 - $87.82) / $87.82 = -38.3% $3.96 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $67.69 22.9% downside ($67.69 - $87.82) / $87.82 = -22.9% $3.96 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $81.23 7.5% downside ($81.23 - $87.82) / $87.82 = -7.5% $3.96 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.96$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $87.13 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $67.69 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $87.13 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples