Henry Schein, Inc. logo HSIC - Henry Schein, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 15
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $85.43 DETAILS
HIGH: $97.00
LOW: $64.00
MEDIAN: $86.00
CONSENSUS: $85.43
UPSIDE: 15.12%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 10.5% above fair value
Current Price $74.21
Bear Case $53.74 27.6% downside ($53.74 - $74.21) / $74.21 = -27.6% $3.96 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $67.18 9.5% downside ($67.18 - $74.21) / $74.21 = -9.5% $3.96 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $80.61 8.6% upside ($80.61 - $74.21) / $74.21 = 8.6% $3.96 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.96$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $85.43 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $67.18 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $85.43 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 31% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples