Henry Schein, Inc. logo HSIC - Henry Schein, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 17
HOLD 14
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $92.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $110.00
LOW: $64.00
MEDIAN: $95.00
CONSENSUS: $92.33
UPSIDE: 4.65%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 79.9% above fair value
Current Price $88.23
Bear Case $39.24 55.5% downside ($39.24 - $88.23) / $88.23 = -55.5% $3.27 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $49.05 44.4% downside ($49.05 - $88.23) / $88.23 = -44.4% $3.27 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $58.86 33.3% downside ($58.86 - $88.23) / $88.23 = -33.3% $3.27 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.27$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 27.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.27, the base-case value is $49.05 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (34 analysts) $92.33
Analyst Range $64.00 – $110.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 47%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $92.33 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples