Is HRNNF undervalued?

AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Hydro One Limited's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag HRNNF as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Hydro One Limited's fair value?

Fair value for HRNNF is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value HRNNF?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from HRNNF's most recent reported fundamentals.

HRNNF - Hydro One Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 59.6% above fair value

Current Price $42.78

Bear Case $23.45 45.2% downside ($23.45 - $42.78) / $42.78 = -45.2% $1.68 × 14x P/E

Fair Value $26.80 37.3% downside ($26.80 - $42.78) / $42.78 = -37.3% $1.68 × 16x P/E

Bull Case $30.15 29.5% downside ($30.15 - $42.78) / $42.78 = -29.5% $1.68 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

16.0x

Adjusted EPS

1.68$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 25.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.68, the base-case value is $26.80 per share. DDM cross-check: $19.71.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $19.71 (below our primary estimate by 26%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

ℹ Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7239 USD per CAD.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples