AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag HOV as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for HOV is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value HOV?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from HOV's most recent reported fundamentals.

HOV - Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 70.4% below fair value

Current Price $128.76

Bear Case $319.00 147.7% upside ($319.00 - $128.76) / $128.76 = 147.7% $29.00 × 14x + net cash

Fair Value $435.00 237.8% upside ($435.00 - $128.76) / $128.76 = 237.8% $29.00 × 18x + net cash

Bull Case $551.00 327.9% upside ($551.00 - $128.76) / $128.76 = 327.9% $29.00 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

18.0x

Normalized EPS

29.0$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($29.00)

Implied Market Multiple 4.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $29.00 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $435.00 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 0.8x.

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing