HLNE - Hamilton Lane Incorporated
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$140.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$179.00
LOW:
$102.00
MEDIAN:
$141.00
CONSENSUS:
$140.00
UPSIDE:
72.65%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
27.2%
10.7%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (27.2%) vs. cost of equity (10.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
4.92x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $140.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $110.78 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $131.19 (27% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $140.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly