HIG - The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.
Price:
--
--
|
CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
|
PRICE TARGET:
$151.33
DETAILS
HIGH:
$154.00
LOW:
$146.00
MEDIAN:
$154.00
CONSENSUS:
$151.33
UPSIDE:
9.37%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
23.2%
6.8%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (23.2%) vs. cost of equity (6.8%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.3x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 23.2% vs. 6.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $60.20 tangible book, implying $240.79 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (42 analysts)
$151.33
Analyst Range
$146.00 – $154.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
59%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $151.33 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 59% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly