HIG - The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$152.44
DETAILS
HIGH:
$165.00
LOW:
$135.00
MEDIAN:
$156.00
CONSENSUS:
$152.44
UPSIDE:
12.50%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
23.2%
7.1%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (23.2%) vs. cost of equity (7.1%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.25x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $152.44 from 42 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $214.28 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $152.44 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 58% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly