The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. logo HIG - The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 23
HOLD 19
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $150.43 DETAILS
HIGH: $165.00
LOW: $135.00
MEDIAN: $154.00
CONSENSUS: $150.43
UPSIDE: 7.07%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 34.2% below fair value
Current Price $140.50
Bear Case $213.68 52.1% upside ($213.68 - $140.50) / $140.50 = 52.1% ROTCE 17.4% → 4.00x TBV
Fair Value $213.68 52.1% upside ($213.68 - $140.50) / $140.50 = 52.1% ROTCE 23.2% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $213.68 52.1% upside ($213.68 - $140.50) / $140.50 = 52.1% ROTCE 26.7% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

23.2%
6.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (23.2%) vs. cost of equity (6.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.33x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $150.43 from 42 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $213.68 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $150.43 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 60% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly