HBT - HBT Financial, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$31.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$32.00
LOW:
$30.00
MEDIAN:
$31.00
CONSENSUS:
$31.00
UPSIDE:
9.31%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
14.2%
7.2%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (14.2%) vs. cost of equity (7.2%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.65x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $31.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $50.81 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $31.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 80% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly