HBT Financial, Inc. logo HBT - HBT Financial, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 3
HOLD 2
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $32.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $32.00
LOW: $32.00
MEDIAN: $32.00
CONSENSUS: $32.00
DOWNSIDE: 0.52%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 38.4% below fair value
Current Price $32.17
Bear Case $34.05 5.9% upside ($34.05 - $32.17) / $32.17 = 5.9% ROTCE 10.7% → 2.17x TBV
Fair Value $52.21 62.3% upside ($52.21 - $32.17) / $32.17 = 62.3% ROTCE 14.2% → 3.33x TBV
Bull Case $62.72 95.0% upside ($62.72 - $32.17) / $32.17 = 95.0% ROTCE 16.4% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

14.2%
7.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.2%) vs. cost of equity (7.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.87x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $32.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $52.21 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $32.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 79% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly