Home Bancorp, Inc. logo HBCP - Home Bancorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $50.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $50.00
LOW: $50.00
MEDIAN: $50.00
CONSENSUS: $50.00
DOWNSIDE: 23.04%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 50.9% below fair value
Current Price $64.97
Bear Case $84.79 30.5% upside ($84.79 - $64.97) / $64.97 = 30.5% ROTCE 9.8% → 1.89x TBV
Fair Value $132.42 103.8% upside ($132.42 - $64.97) / $64.97 = 103.8% ROTCE 13.1% → 2.96x TBV
Bull Case $160.99 147.8% upside ($160.99 - $64.97) / $64.97 = 147.8% ROTCE 15.1% → 3.60x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.1%
7.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.1%) vs. cost of equity (7.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.45x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 13.1% vs. 7.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.96x on $44.77 tangible book, implying $132.42 per share. DDM cross-check: $101.16.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly