Hasbro, Inc. logo HAS - Hasbro, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 17
HOLD 16
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $107.17 DETAILS
HIGH: $123.00
LOW: $90.00
MEDIAN: $107.50
CONSENSUS: $107.17
UPSIDE: 12.63%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 331.5% above fair value
Current Price $95.15
Bear Case $17.64 81.5% downside ($17.64 - $95.15) / $95.15 = -81.5% $1.47 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $22.05 76.8% downside ($22.05 - $95.15) / $95.15 = -76.8% $1.47 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $26.46 72.2% downside ($26.46 - $95.15) / $95.15 = -72.2% $1.47 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
1.47$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 64.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.47, the base-case value is $22.05 per share. DDM cross-check: $40.40.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (33 analysts) $107.17
Analyst Range $90.00 – $123.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 79%

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $40.40 (above our primary estimate by 83%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $107.17 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 79% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples