Hyatt Hotels Corporation logo H - Hyatt Hotels Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 18
HOLD 25
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $191.60 DETAILS
HIGH: $219.00
LOW: $171.00
MEDIAN: $193.50
CONSENSUS: $191.60
UPSIDE: 10.02%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 92.7% above fair value
Current Price $174.15
Bear Case $47.77 72.6% downside ($47.77 - $174.15) / $174.15 = -72.6% 6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $90.36 48.1% downside ($90.36 - $174.15) / $174.15 = -48.1% 10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $131.93 24.2% downside ($131.93 - $174.15) / $174.15 = -24.2% 13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 45.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $191.60 from 49 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $90.36 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $191.60 (from 49 analysts). Our estimate is 75% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions