The Gorman-Rupp Company logo GRC - The Gorman-Rupp Company

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 94.9% above fair value
Current Price $77.82
Bear Case $31.94 59.0% downside ($31.94 - $77.82) / $77.82 = -59.0% $2.02 × 16x P/E
Fair Value $39.93 48.7% downside ($39.93 - $77.82) / $77.82 = -48.7% $2.02 × 20x P/E
Bull Case $47.91 38.4% downside ($47.91 - $77.82) / $77.82 = -38.4% $2.02 × 24x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

19.8x
2.02$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (20x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 38.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 20x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.02, the base-case value is $39.93 per share. DDM cross-check: $13.51.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $13.51 (below our primary estimate by 66%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples