GPN - Global Payments Inc.
Price:
--
--
|
CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
|
PRICE TARGET:
$84.89
DETAILS
HIGH:
$109.00
LOW:
$76.00
MEDIAN:
$81.00
CONSENSUS:
$84.89
UPSIDE:
15.87%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
80% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
88.6%
8.5%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (88.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.5%)
Implied Market Multiple
10.97x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $84.89 from 62 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $83.62 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly