Global Payments Inc. logo GPN - Global Payments Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 36
HOLD 22
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $84.89 DETAILS
HIGH: $109.00
LOW: $76.00
MEDIAN: $81.00
CONSENSUS: $84.89
UPSIDE: 15.87%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 12.4% below fair value
Current Price $73.26
Bear Case $58.54 20.1% downside ($58.54 - $73.26) / $73.26 = -20.1% ROTCE 20.0% → 3.58x TBV
Fair Value $83.62 14.1% upside ($83.62 - $73.26) / $73.26 = 14.1% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $108.71 48.4% upside ($108.71 - $73.26) / $73.26 = 48.4% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

88.6%
8.5%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (88.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 10.97x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $84.89 from 62 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $83.62 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly