Global Payments Inc. logo GPN - Global Payments Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 37
HOLD 22
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $99.31 DETAILS
HIGH: $125.00
LOW: $80.00
MEDIAN: $95.00
CONSENSUS: $99.31
UPSIDE: 13.33%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 5.7% above fair value
Current Price $87.63
Bear Case $58.06 33.7% downside ($58.06 - $87.63) / $87.63 = -33.7% ROTCE 20.0% → 3.47x TBV
Fair Value $82.94 5.4% downside ($82.94 - $87.63) / $87.63 = -5.4% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $107.82 23.0% upside ($107.82 - $87.63) / $87.63 = 23.0% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

88.6%
8.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (88.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 13.76x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 88.6% vs. 8.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $6.37 tangible book, implying $82.94 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (63 analysts) $99.31
Analyst Range $80.00 – $125.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 16%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly