Global Payments Inc. logo GPN - Global Payments Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 36
HOLD 22
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $87.27 DETAILS
HIGH: $111.00
LOW: $76.00
MEDIAN: $82.00
CONSENSUS: $87.27
UPSIDE: 6.09%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 2.6% below fair value
Current Price $82.26
Bear Case $59.12 28.1% downside ($59.12 - $82.26) / $82.26 = -28.1% ROTCE 20.0% → 3.53x TBV
Fair Value $84.46 2.7% upside ($84.46 - $82.26) / $82.26 = 2.7% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $109.79 33.5% upside ($109.79 - $82.26) / $82.26 = 33.5% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

88.6%
8.5%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (88.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 12.92x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $87.27 from 62 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $84.46 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly