Corning Inc logo GLW - Corning Inc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 20
HOLD 15
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $194.78 DETAILS
HIGH: $270.00
LOW: $130.00
MEDIAN: $180.00
CONSENSUS: $194.78
UPSIDE: 2.06%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 181.5% above fair value
Current Price $190.85
Bear Case $46.59 75.6% downside ($46.59 - $190.85) / $190.85 = -75.6% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $67.81 64.5% downside ($67.81 - $190.85) / $190.85 = -64.5% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $86.90 54.5% downside ($86.90 - $190.85) / $190.85 = -54.5% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 144.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) 35.5% vs our 6.7% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $194.78 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $67.81 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $194.78 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 93% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions