Corning Incorporated logo GLW - Corning Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 20
HOLD 15
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $168.56 DETAILS
HIGH: $223.00
LOW: $120.00
MEDIAN: $180.00
CONSENSUS: $168.56
DOWNSIDE: 13.14%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 223.7% above fair value
Current Price $194.05
Bear Case $41.18 78.8% downside ($41.18 - $194.05) / $194.05 = -78.8% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $59.94 69.1% downside ($59.94 - $194.05) / $194.05 = -69.1% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $76.82 60.4% downside ($76.82 - $194.05) / $194.05 = -60.4% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 146.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $168.56 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $59.94 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $168.56 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 92% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions