Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. logo GLPI - Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 8
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $47.89 DETAILS
HIGH: $52.00
LOW: $43.00
MEDIAN: $49.00
CONSENSUS: $47.89
UPSIDE: 26.33%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 73.0% below fair value
Current Price $37.91
Bear Case $116.66 207.7% upside ($116.66 - $37.91) / $37.91 = 207.7% $3.91 FFO × 22x
Fair Value $140.31 270.1% upside ($140.31 - $37.91) / $37.91 = 270.1% $3.91 FFO × 27x
Bull Case $163.96 332.5% upside ($163.96 - $37.91) / $37.91 = 332.5% $3.91 FFO × 32x

Adjust Assumptions

27.0x
3.91$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($3.91) × specialty P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 9.7x

Plain-Language Summary

At $3.91 FFO/share with a 27x specialty REIT multiple, the base-case value is $140.31 per share. Dividend yield: 8.4%. DDM cross-check: $221.23.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (28 analysts) $47.89
Analyst Range $43.00 – $52.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 193%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
⚠ Dividend yield of 8.4% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $221.23 (58% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $47.89 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 193% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify