Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. logo GLPI - Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 7
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $50.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $55.00
LOW: $45.00
MEDIAN: $50.00
CONSENSUS: $50.00
UPSIDE: 14.38%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 69.2% below fair value
Current Price $43.71
Bear Case $117.97 169.9% upside ($117.97 - $43.71) / $43.71 = 169.9% $3.91 FFO × 22x
Fair Value $141.85 224.5% upside ($141.85 - $43.71) / $43.71 = 224.5% $3.91 FFO × 27x
Bull Case $165.73 279.1% upside ($165.73 - $43.71) / $43.71 = 279.1% $3.91 FFO × 32x

Adjust Assumptions

27.0x
3.91$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($3.91) × specialty P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 11.2x

Plain-Language Summary

At $3.91 FFO/share with a 27x specialty REIT multiple, the base-case value is $141.85 per share. Dividend yield: 7.2%. DDM cross-check: $226.37.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (27 analysts) $50.00
Analyst Range $45.00 – $55.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 184%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 7.2% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $226.37 (60% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $50.00 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 184% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify