Gilead Sciences, Inc. logo GILD - Gilead Sciences, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 38
HOLD 19
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $161.76 DETAILS
HIGH: $180.00
LOW: $133.00
MEDIAN: $165.00
CONSENSUS: $161.76
UPSIDE: 20.39%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 4.1% above fair value
Current Price $134.36
Bear Case $110.68 17.6% downside ($110.68 - $134.36) / $134.36 = -17.6% $7.97 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $129.12 3.9% downside ($129.12 - $134.36) / $134.36 = -3.9% $7.97 × 14x P/E
Bull Case $147.57 9.8% upside ($147.57 - $134.36) / $134.36 = 9.8% $7.97 × 16x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

14.0x
7.97$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $161.76 from 58 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $129.12 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $57.33 (below our primary estimate by 49%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $161.76 (from 58 analysts). Our estimate is 31% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples