Gilead Sciences, Inc. logo GILD - Gilead Sciences, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 39
HOLD 18
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $151.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $180.00
LOW: $123.00
MEDIAN: $152.50
CONSENSUS: $151.25
UPSIDE: 3.07%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 54.6% above fair value
Current Price $146.74
Bear Case $81.36 44.6% downside ($81.36 - $146.74) / $146.74 = -44.6% $6.78 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $94.92 35.3% downside ($94.92 - $146.74) / $146.74 = -35.3% $6.78 × 14x P/E
Bull Case $108.48 26.1% downside ($108.48 - $146.74) / $146.74 = -26.1% $6.78 × 16x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

14.0x
6.78$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 21.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 14x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.78, the base-case value is $94.92 per share. DDM cross-check: $58.38.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (58 analysts) $151.25
Analyst Range $123.00 – $180.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 37%

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $58.38 (below our primary estimate by 38%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $151.25 (from 58 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples