AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. as a Stable Earnings Power business and values it using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag FWRG as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for FWRG comes from a P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Stable Earnings Power classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value FWRG?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. FWRG was classified as Stable Earnings Power and is valued using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, built from FWRG's most recent reported fundamentals.

FWRG - First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $16.25 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild

Trading 8.9% above fair value

Current Price $10.89

Bear Case $8.37 23.1% downside ($8.37 - $10.89) / $10.89 = -23.1% $0.31 × 27x P/E

Fair Value $10.00 8.2% downside ($10.00 - $10.89) / $10.89 = -8.2% $0.31 × 32x P/E

Bull Case $11.62 6.7% upside ($11.62 - $10.89) / $10.89 = 6.7% $0.31 × 38x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

32.2x

Adjusted EPS

0.31$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (32x base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 35.1x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 32x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.31, the base-case value is $10.00 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (15 analysts) $16.25

Analyst Range $14.00 – $18.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 38%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $16.25 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples