AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag FWRG as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for FWRG is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value FWRG?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from FWRG's most recent reported fundamentals.

FWRG - First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $16.50 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 43.1% below fair value

Current Price $12.87

Bear Case $18.93 47.1% upside ($18.93 - $12.87) / $12.87 = 47.1% $0.76 × 27x P/E

Fair Value $22.61 75.7% upside ($22.61 - $12.87) / $12.87 = 75.7% $0.76 × 32x P/E

Bull Case $26.30 104.4% upside ($26.30 - $12.87) / $12.87 = 104.4% $0.76 × 38x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

32.2x

Adjusted EPS

0.76$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (32x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $16.50 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $22.61 per share.

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 147%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $16.50 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 49% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples