AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies FTAI Aviation Ltd. as a Cyclical & Capital-Intensive business and values it using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag FTAI as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is FTAI Aviation Ltd.'s fair value?

Fair value for FTAI comes from a Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Cyclical & Capital-Intensive classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value FTAI?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. FTAI was classified as Cyclical & Capital-Intensive and is valued using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, built from FTAI's most recent reported fundamentals.

FTAI - FTAI Aviation Ltd.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $325.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 4273.4% above fair value

Current Price $196.28

Bear Case $3.67 98.1% downside ($3.67 - $196.28) / $196.28 = -98.1% $0.20 × 18x

Fair Value $4.49 97.7% downside ($4.49 - $196.28) / $196.28 = -97.7% $0.20 × 22x

Bull Case $5.30 97.3% downside ($5.30 - $196.28) / $196.28 = -97.3% $0.20 × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

22.0x

Normalized EPS

0.2$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.20)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 962.2x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $0.20 at a 22x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $4.49 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 91.5x.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (18 analysts) $325.00

Analyst Range $290.00 – $360.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 99%

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.

⚠ Recent profits ($4.60/share) are 2155% above the mid-cycle average ($0.20). Buying based on peak profits is the most common mistake with boom-and-bust businesses.

⚠ Price-to-book value of 91.5x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

ℹ This company has heavy ongoing investment costs. Valuation shortcuts that ignore those costs can make the stock look cheaper than it really is.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $325.00 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 99% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing