FRT - Federal Realty Investment Trust
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$131.27
DETAILS
HIGH:
$149.00
LOW:
$118.00
MEDIAN:
$130.00
CONSENSUS:
$131.27
UPSIDE:
11.48%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
19.5x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($9.02) × retail P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
13.1x
Plain-Language Summary
At $9.02 FFO/share with a 20x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $143.34 per share. Dividend yield: 3.9%. DDM cross-check: $67.54.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (33 analysts)
$131.27
Analyst Range
$118.00 – $149.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
9%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $67.54 (53% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify