Federal Realty Investment Trust logo FRT - Federal Realty Investment Trust

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 16
HOLD 16
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $115.44 DETAILS
HIGH: $128.00
LOW: $105.00
MEDIAN: $115.00
CONSENSUS: $115.44
DOWNSIDE: 3.60%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 11.1% below fair value
Current Price $119.75
Bear Case $108.68 9.2% downside ($108.68 - $119.75) / $119.75 = -9.2% $9.02 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $134.68 12.5% upside ($134.68 - $119.75) / $119.75 = 12.5% $9.02 FFO × 20x
Bull Case $160.69 34.2% upside ($160.69 - $119.75) / $119.75 = 34.2% $9.02 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

19.5x
9.02$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($9.02) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 13.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $115.44 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $134.68 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $66.20 (54% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify