Federal Realty Investment Trust logo FRT - Federal Realty Investment Trust

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 17
HOLD 15
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $131.27 DETAILS
HIGH: $149.00
LOW: $118.00
MEDIAN: $130.00
CONSENSUS: $131.27
UPSIDE: 11.48%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 17.9% below fair value
Current Price $117.75
Bear Case $115.68 1.8% downside ($115.68 - $117.75) / $117.75 = -1.8% $9.02 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $143.34 21.7% upside ($143.34 - $117.75) / $117.75 = 21.7% $9.02 FFO × 20x
Bull Case $170.99 45.2% upside ($170.99 - $117.75) / $117.75 = 45.2% $9.02 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

19.5x
9.02$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($9.02) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 13.1x

Plain-Language Summary

At $9.02 FFO/share with a 20x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $143.34 per share. Dividend yield: 3.9%. DDM cross-check: $67.54.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (33 analysts) $131.27
Analyst Range $118.00 – $149.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 9%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $67.54 (53% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify