Federal Realty Investment Trust logo FRT - Federal Realty Investment Trust

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 17
HOLD 15
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $127.08 DETAILS
HIGH: $143.00
LOW: $111.00
MEDIAN: $127.50
CONSENSUS: $127.08
UPSIDE: 5.08%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 12.5% below fair value
Current Price $120.94
Bear Case $111.50 7.8% downside ($111.50 - $120.94) / $120.94 = -7.8% $9.02 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $138.18 14.3% upside ($138.18 - $120.94) / $120.94 = 14.3% $9.02 FFO × 20x
Bull Case $164.86 36.3% upside ($164.86 - $120.94) / $120.94 = 36.3% $9.02 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

19.5x
9.02$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($9.02) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 13.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $127.08 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $138.18 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $66.20 (54% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify