Primis Financial Corp. logo FRST - Primis Financial Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $14.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $14.00
LOW: $14.00
MEDIAN: $14.00
CONSENSUS: $14.00
DOWNSIDE: 2.30%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 67.2% below fair value
Current Price $14.33
Bear Case $29.76 107.7% upside ($29.76 - $14.33) / $14.33 = 107.7% ROTCE 14.0% → 2.24x TBV
Fair Value $43.65 204.6% upside ($43.65 - $14.33) / $14.33 = 204.6% ROTCE 18.7% → 3.28x TBV
Bull Case $51.99 262.8% upside ($51.99 - $14.33) / $14.33 = 262.8% ROTCE 21.5% → 3.91x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

18.7%
8.5%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (18.7%) vs. cost of equity (8.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.08x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 18.7% vs. 8.5% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.28x on $13.30 tangible book, implying $43.65 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly