Primis Financial Corp logo FRST - Primis Financial Corp

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $19.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $19.00
LOW: $19.00
MEDIAN: $19.00
CONSENSUS: $19.00
UPSIDE: 17.57%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 64.8% below fair value
Current Price $16.16
Bear Case $31.29 93.6% upside ($31.29 - $16.16) / $16.16 = 93.6% ROTCE 14.0% → 2.36x TBV
Fair Value $45.90 184.0% upside ($45.90 - $16.16) / $16.16 = 184.0% ROTCE 18.7% → 3.47x TBV
Bull Case $52.96 227.7% upside ($52.96 - $16.16) / $16.16 = 227.7% ROTCE 21.5% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

18.7%
8.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (18.7%) vs. cost of equity (8.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.22x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 18.7% vs. 8.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.47x on $13.24 tangible book, implying $45.90 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly