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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 75% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 176.8% above fair value
Current Price $23.98
Bear Case $6.93 71.1% downside ($6.93 - $23.98) / $23.98 = -71.1% $0.47 × 15x P/E
Fair Value $8.66 63.9% downside ($8.66 - $23.98) / $23.98 = -63.9% $0.47 × 19x P/E
Bull Case $10.40 56.6% downside ($10.40 - $23.98) / $23.98 = -56.6% $0.47 × 22x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

18.5x
0.47$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 51.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 19x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.47, the base-case value is $8.66 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 175%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples