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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 20.2% below fair value
Current Price $10.32
Bear Case $10.34 0.2% upside ($10.34 - $10.32) / $10.32 = 0.2% $0.86 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $12.93 25.3% upside ($12.93 - $10.32) / $10.32 = 25.3% $0.86 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $15.52 50.3% upside ($15.52 - $10.32) / $10.32 = 50.3% $0.86 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.86$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.86, the base-case value is $12.93 per share. DDM cross-check: $24.35.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $24.35 (above our primary estimate by 88%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples