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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 317.5% above fair value
Current Price $12.65
Bear Case $2.42 80.8% downside ($2.42 - $12.65) / $12.65 = -80.8% $0.20 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $3.03 76.0% downside ($3.03 - $12.65) / $12.65 = -76.0% $0.20 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $3.64 71.3% downside ($3.64 - $12.65) / $12.65 = -71.3% $0.20 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.2$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 62.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.20, the base-case value is $3.03 per share. DDM cross-check: $24.35.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $24.35 (above our primary estimate by 703%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples