The First Bancorp, Inc. logo FNLC - The First Bancorp, Inc.

Price: -- --
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 53.6% below fair value
Current Price $34.04
Bear Case $47.35 39.1% upside ($47.35 - $34.04) / $34.04 = 39.1% ROTCE 10.2% → 2.11x TBV
Fair Value $73.28 115.3% upside ($73.28 - $34.04) / $34.04 = 115.3% ROTCE 13.6% → 3.27x TBV
Bull Case $88.85 161.0% upside ($88.85 - $34.04) / $34.04 = 161.0% ROTCE 15.7% → 3.97x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.6%
6.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.6%) vs. cost of equity (6.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.52x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 13.6% vs. 6.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.27x on $22.39 tangible book, implying $73.28 per share. DDM cross-check: $36.68.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $36.68 (50% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly