The First Bancorp, Inc. logo FNLC - The First Bancorp, Inc.

Price: -- --
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 53.8% below fair value
Current Price $33.78
Bear Case $47.23 39.8% upside ($47.23 - $33.78) / $33.78 = 39.8% ROTCE 10.2% → 2.11x TBV
Fair Value $73.10 116.4% upside ($73.10 - $33.78) / $33.78 = 116.4% ROTCE 13.6% → 3.27x TBV
Bull Case $88.63 162.4% upside ($88.63 - $33.78) / $33.78 = 162.4% ROTCE 15.7% → 3.96x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.6%
6.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.6%) vs. cost of equity (6.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.51x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 13.6% vs. 6.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.27x on $22.38 tangible book, implying $73.10 per share. DDM cross-check: $35.33.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $35.33 (52% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly