The First Bancorp, Inc. logo FNLC - The First Bancorp, Inc.

Price: -- --
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 59.3% below fair value
Current Price $28.58
Bear Case $45.39 58.8% upside ($45.39 - $28.58) / $28.58 = 58.8% ROTCE 10.2% → 2.03x TBV
Fair Value $70.26 145.8% upside ($70.26 - $28.58) / $28.58 = 145.8% ROTCE 13.6% → 3.14x TBV
Bull Case $85.18 198.0% upside ($85.18 - $28.58) / $28.58 = 198.0% ROTCE 15.7% → 3.80x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.6%
7.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.6%) vs. cost of equity (7.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.28x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 13.6% vs. 7.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.14x on $22.39 tangible book, implying $70.26 per share. DDM cross-check: $36.98.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $36.98 (47% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly