Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc. logo FMAO - Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $32.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $32.00
LOW: $32.00
MEDIAN: $32.00
CONSENSUS: $32.00
UPSIDE: 6.03%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 10.9% below fair value
Current Price $30.18
Bear Case $21.14 29.9% downside ($21.14 - $30.18) / $30.18 = -29.9% ROTCE 8.9% → 1.04x TBV
Fair Value $33.89 12.3% upside ($33.89 - $30.18) / $30.18 = 12.3% ROTCE 11.9% → 1.67x TBV
Bull Case $41.54 37.6% upside ($41.54 - $30.18) / $30.18 = 37.6% ROTCE 13.7% → 2.05x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

11.9%
8.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (11.9%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.49x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 11.9% vs. 8.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.67x on $20.29 tangible book, implying $33.89 per share. DDM cross-check: $19.09.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $19.09 (44% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly