Flywire Corporation logo FLYW - Flywire Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 13
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $18.56 DETAILS
HIGH: $21.00
LOW: $16.00
MEDIAN: $18.00
CONSENSUS: $18.56
UPSIDE: 15.14%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 53.6% below fair value
Current Price $16.12
Bear Case $20.16 25.1% upside ($20.16 - $16.12) / $16.12 = 25.1% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $34.72 115.4% upside ($34.72 - $16.12) / $16.12 = 115.4% 20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $53.01 228.9% upside ($53.01 - $16.12) / $16.12 = 228.9% 26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

20.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (20% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 46%
Implied Market Multiple 16.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.56 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $34.72 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $18.56 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 116% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions