FLG - Flagstar Financial, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$16.81
DETAILS
HIGH:
$18.00
LOW:
$15.00
MEDIAN:
$17.00
CONSENSUS:
$16.81
UPSIDE:
48.50%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
-2.3%
10.1%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (-2.3%) vs. cost of equity (10.1%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.61x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of -2.3% vs. 10.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $18.62 tangible book, implying $17.51 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$16.81
Analyst Range
$15.00 – $18.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
4%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (-2.3%) is below the minimum investors require (10.1%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly