Flex Ltd. logo FLEX - Flex Ltd.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $150.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $203.00
LOW: $80.00
MEDIAN: $171.00
CONSENSUS: $150.00
UPSIDE: 10.46%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 110.9% above fair value
Current Price $135.80
Bear Case $51.50 62.1% downside ($51.50 - $135.80) / $135.80 = -62.1% $2.39 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $64.38 52.6% downside ($64.38 - $135.80) / $135.80 = -52.6% $2.39 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $77.26 43.1% downside ($77.26 - $135.80) / $135.80 = -43.1% $2.39 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.39$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 56.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $150.00 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $64.38 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $150.00 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples