Five9, Inc. logo FIVN - Five9, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 25
HOLD 15
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $23.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $25.00
LOW: $21.00
MEDIAN: $23.00
CONSENSUS: $23.00
UPSIDE: 7.88%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 23.6% below fair value
Current Price $21.32
Bear Case $17.38 18.5% downside ($17.38 - $21.32) / $21.32 = -18.5% 9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $27.92 31.0% upside ($27.92 - $21.32) / $21.32 = 31.0% 15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $39.60 85.7% upside ($39.60 - $21.32) / $21.32 = 85.7% 20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

15.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (15% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 19.8x
Market is pricing in (growth) 10.7% vs our 15.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $23.00 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $27.92 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 376% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $23.00 (from 41 analysts). Our estimate is 31% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions