Five9, Inc. logo FIVN - Five9, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 25
HOLD 15
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $23.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $25.00
LOW: $22.00
MEDIAN: $23.00
CONSENSUS: $23.33
DOWNSIDE: 25.22%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 9.3% below fair value
Current Price $31.20
Bear Case $21.52 31.0% downside ($21.52 - $31.20) / $31.20 = -31.0% 9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $34.41 10.3% upside ($34.41 - $31.20) / $31.20 = 10.3% 15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $48.68 56.0% upside ($48.68 - $31.20) / $31.20 = 56.0% 20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

15.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (15% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 24.8x
Market is pricing in (growth) 13.8% vs our 15.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $34.41 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (41 analysts) $23.33
Analyst Range $22.00 – $25.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 47%

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 376% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $23.33 (from 41 analysts). Our estimate is 47% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions