Five9, Inc. logo FIVN - Five9, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 25
HOLD 15
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $31.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $40.00
LOW: $22.00
MEDIAN: $31.50
CONSENSUS: $31.25
DOWNSIDE: 12.64%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 1.0% above fair value
Current Price $35.77
Bear Case $21.91 38.8% downside ($21.91 - $35.77) / $35.77 = -38.8% 9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $35.42 1.0% downside ($35.42 - $35.77) / $35.77 = -1.0% 15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $50.54 41.3% upside ($50.54 - $35.77) / $35.77 = 41.3% 20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

15.4%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (15% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 28.2x
Market is pricing in (growth) 15.5% vs our 15.4% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $35.42 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (41 analysts) $31.25
Analyst Range $22.00 – $40.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 13%

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 376% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions